Testing Roulette Systems 21 - The King System

What about statistics?

Generally, the probability of winning in each spin is 24/37 = 64.86%. Given the progression and actual waiting for a win, it would be quite complicated to precisely calculate the real probability and expected win. Therefore, let's rather follow the empirical development of the entire system.

Let's look at the development of the basic version in the long term:

As you can see, the system shows different possibilities of development. Sometimes it goes nicely straight into profit, sometimes with smaller, sometimes with larger local fluctuations, but after some time (about 50,000 spins) a significant and deep drop occurs. And given that the winning part brings around 10,000 chips of profit in 25,000 spins, while the losing part can drag us down by hundreds of thousands to millions of chips, it is clear that for long-term playing, this won't work...

Never mind, let's try progression. Let's set a classic one - we set a certain limit of maximum bet and once we reach it, we start betting again from the beginning, but with an increased basic bet by 1 chip. Let's try setting the bet limits gradually, for example, to 100, 200, and 500 chips and see how it will look:

The runs are evidently very similar. The system stays slightly above zero for a while, but after some time it crashes down. A higher bet limit only causes the system to stay above zero a bit longer, but then it falls even more and faster (generally, the depth of the drop ranges from 40,000 to millions of chips...). Short-term, however, this system can be profitable, often the course of 25,000 spins looks like this:

But otherwise, nothing much, the risk of total bankruptcy is quite high. What to do next? We can try, for example, waiting (wait strategy), that is, we wait without betting as long as a dozen falls several times in a row, only then do we start betting. Let's see what comes out of it:

This is how it looks during the classic progression with a bet limit of 100 chips, using a wait factor of 2 spins, 3 spins, and 5 spins (i.e., how long a series of the same dozen we wait for before we start betting). With a wait factor of 2, this limitation is not very noticeable yet. With a factor of 3, the change is more pronounced, the range of values is much smaller (order of thousands of chips, no longer millions), but a significant drop can still occur, although not as often. With a wait factor of 5, the influence is significant. As you can see, the whole graph is "stepped," practically representing the fact that we spend most of the time at the roulette table waiting for a series of 5 same dozens in a row. We hardly lose anything, but the win, given the time spent, is minimal (150 chips for 25,000 spins), which is almost the same as not playing at all and just watching...

This system is still too risky for long-term playing, but unlike the others, at least something practical can be done with this system. The wait variant could, for example, be incorporated into a more complex system that would include a larger number of different systems.

Author: Michal P.