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11. 5. 2020

What Are the Odds to Get Natural in Blackjack

The combination of any ten and an ace is the strongest hand in blackjack. Amongst the players, it is referred to as "natural", and it is the hand that everybody wants to see. If the dealer does not have the combination, the paid out is in a ratio of 3:2 or 6:5. Let's see how often will you get the natural.

The worst possible situation is a draw, which is the situation where the player and the dealer both have natural. Bets are then returned to the player. Players who do not like to take risks can use insurance against the dealer’s show up an ace. But unless you count cards, the insurance bet is not recommended.

Due to the importance of this combination, there are more and more players today who are interested in probability and payout ratios even with unique variants of the game.

Blackjack and Math

So how do we find out how often we get the natural blackjack? For practical purposes, numbers based on an endless deck of cards. In this case, the odds of the natural on any hand, both player and dealer, are precisely 4.73%. This means that you can expect the natural blackjack on average once every 21 games.

The probability that you will get blackjack at the same time as the dealer is 0.22%. In other words, this situation occurs once every 450 games. If the dealer gets the first card with ten value, he gets the natural in 7.69% of the games – once in 13 games. If the first card is an ace, the natural comes in 30.77% of cases – four times in 13 games.

In some types of games, bonuses are also paid for blackjack. The chance of blackjack of two cards of the same color is 2.37%. For a particular suit, such as a spade, the chances of blackjack are 0.30%. And we have the rarest case of blackjack, from cards of the same suit and adjacent, for example, A, K in diamonds. Such a hand comes to us in 0.07% of games.

Different Types of Games

Nowadays, however, you can come across several variants, depending on the number of packages used. The most common is the variant with eight decks of cards. Here you can expect natural in 4.745% of cases. Six decks account for 4.749% of the games, and the four-deck for 4.756% of the games. With the variant with two packages, you can expect natural in 4.78% and with the single deck game in 4.83 cases.

So here you see the chances of getting the natural blackjack with a visible ace at the dealer in different types of games.

  • Eight decks: 30.84%
  • Six decks: 30.92%
  • Four decks: 30.92%
  • Two decks: 31.07%
  • One deck: 31.37%

As you can see, the number of cards played also affects dealers’ blackjacks. The reason is simple. The more non-tens card, the less chance there is of completing the natural.

Our Tens against the Dealers

Let’s say you play one on one, so only you and the dealer are at the table. He has an ace show card. When playing with eight decks, if you have no 10, one or two ten on your hand, the dealer’s blackjack chances are 30.99%, 30.75% and 30.51%, respectively.

In the version with six packages, in the same situation, i.e. no 10, one ten and two 10, the chances are as follows – 31.07%, 30.74% and 30.42% of games, respectively.

Now let’s take a look at a situation where a dealer has an ace when playing eight decks and there are seven players at the table. So you see 14 cards and the dealer’s ace. If neither player has 10, the dealer has a 31.92% chance to complete.

However, if each player has one ten and one lower cards, the dealer’s chances of blackjack are 30.17%. When each player has two 10’s, the dealer’s chances drop to 28.43%.

Polters Ventures Ltd.
https://anygamble.com/what-are-the-odds-get-natural-in-blackjack/ 2020-05-11 08:12:33

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