Jan 3, 2020
Casino strategy

Introduction of Michael Bluejay's Betting System

When we talk about the house edge, we always discuss the long-term playing. But in a shorter game, anything can happen. Otherwise, no one would gamble. In the long term, the odds are against you. So take advantage of the short-term deviation and maximize winnings, or minimize losses.

Today we will introduce the betting system named after its creator, Michael Bluejay, Half-bankroll Strategy. It is a betting system in which we place high bets. In our case, exactly half of the bankroll. However, we bet this amount on a minimum of bets and thus minimize the effect of the house edge.

Yes, if you go to play, you have to expect to lose. But when we talk about short-term gaming (a weekend at the casino), you can leave with more money. Of course, because there are odds against you, the longer you play, the more money you will lose. After a million games, your loss will be close to the house edge.

So how can we use this information in the game? Well, if we know that the longer we play, the more we lose, it is clear that in a short session our chances of winning will be much better. And the shortest game is just one bet. Statistically, this is your best possible bet: one even bet, you bet all the money at once.

Does that seem crazy to you? Yes, you're probably right. It's logical? According to mathematics, yes. Do you have fun playing such a game? Probably not. If you are already going to the casino for the weekend, you probably want to play a little longer. Don't wager all the money in one bet. But this system has several variants, which we will introduce to you right away. Maybe you like some of them.

Basic Betting System

First, let's look at how this basic system works without modification. If you want to play it by numbers, take and bet your entire bankroll (the amount set aside for playing) on one even bet with a low house edge, such as a bet on a banker in Baccarat, a pass line bet in craps or one hand in blackjack.

If you win, leave. If you lose, leave. Either you double your bankroll or you lose it all. We use per cent for the pass line in craps.

System A:

  • Win (double your money, chance 49.3%)
  • Loss (you lose everything, chance 50.7%)

The main purpose of this system is to use a short-term standard deviation. After playing a million games with a 1% casino advantage (such as baccarat), you would be about 1% poorer. But you can't lose 1% after one game - you can double or play everything.

You will be 100% plus or minus. This step exposes you to a minimal house edge. It's a big risk, but you also have a big reward.

The basis of this system is very simple: the fewer games you play, the less insignificant is the house edge.

So we have already got acquainted with the basic principles, now let's look at other variants of how you can bet all your money.

Bet on What You Have Left

Yes, you are right. Going to play just one game isn't fun. So here's how to place one high bet and still enjoy time in the casino. When you go to the casino for the weekend, play as usual (bet a lot of low stakes). In the end, just before you leave, take the money left over from your bankroll and bet it all at once.

This way, you will enjoy the game and still have the opportunity to make one big bet that is most convenient for you. And that's just the beginning. There are far more ways to make the last bets even more interesting.

Half Bankroll, Two Bets

"I'm sure I'm not the first person to come up with this idea, but I've never encountered it anywhere, so I called it the Half Bankroll System," says Michael Bluejay. The main idea of this system is two big bets, instead of one.

Divide your remaining bankroll into two halves and place two bets worth half the bankroll. Thanks to this variant, you have three or more options to play (instead of a single big bet). It's more fun, more interesting and also less risky.

But always remember: always bet the same amount of money - exactly half of your original bankroll.

Betting system B:

  • Win, win (double your money)
  • Loss, loss (You lose all money)
  • Win, lose (neither win nor lose)
  • Lose, win (neither win or lose)

With this betting system, you have a better chance of a tie, which cannot happen with variant A. But as soon as the chances of a tie increase, your chances of winning decrease. Yes, of course, the chances of losing will decrease too, so it's a balanced situation. Note that if the game ends as a tie, you end up where you started, so you can play the next sequence.

Half Bankroll, Leave after Losing

But what if you decide to finish after the first loss, so you don't have to risk an even bigger loss? In this case, you have the following options:

System C:

  • Win, win (double your money, chances are 24.3%)
  • Win, lose (neither win or lose, chances are 25%)
  • Loss (You lose half the money, chance 50.7%)

At first glance, it may seem that you have a 33% chance of each of these results. There are three options. But this is not true in this case. Your first bet has a 50% chance of losing or winning, right? This means that the 1st and 2nd are together 50%, or 25% each. There are 25% chances of winning in the first round and 50% chances of losing.

And how does it compare to system B? As you can see, the chances of losing increase, but if you lose, you lose only half, instead of everything. You can't lose everything in this system. But in exchange for not being able to lose everything, the chances of losing (you lose half) and the chances of a draw will decrease.

Half Bankroll, Leave after Winning

This is the exact opposite of the previous system C. Instead of losing, you will finish after the first win, so the profit will be 50%. Here's how it works:

System D:

  • Win (You will win a half, chance 49.3%)
  • Win, lose (neither win or lose, 25% chance)
  • Loss, loss (You lose everything, chance 25.7%)

Now compare it with system C. The chances of a tie are the same for both systems. With System D, you have a better chance of winning, but you can only win 50% instead of doubling your money. With system D, you have less chance of losing, but if you lose, you lose everything, instead of half.

And what happens if you decide to leave if you win your first bet and keep your winnings, or after the first loss to save your bankroll? It's just another variant of system A. You only make one bet, no matter how it turns out, for just a small amount.

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